Thursday, January 30, 2014

Super Bowl Props and Picks

Who doesn't love some good Super Bowl bets? I'll take you through some of my thoughts and where I'm putting my real (uh, I mean fake) money come Sunday.

Some of my favorite bets are the long shots. A few of them have to hit, right? When looking at long shots, I usually look at a few things. A) Is there any sort of chance of it happening? B) Do the odds meet the percentage chance? C) Find the right odds.

Anyone can bet Robert Turbin to score a TD AND Seattle to win the game at 22-1, but Turbin's never scored a TD in his two seasons. To me, something like that makes no sense despite the juicy odds.

Here's some of my favorite bets:

Julius Thomas to score two TDs +800 

Thomas has done this twice during the regular season. With the Seattle cornerbacks being one of the best groups in the game, Manning will try to utilize the middle of the field more. Thomas is also due for a TD in general as he hasn't scored a TD in the playoffs.

Peyton Manning Throws a Pick 6 +1000

As you'll see with some of my later predictions, I think Manning struggles. Seattle's defense has only scored three TDs this year, but I think the team jumps out early and force Manning to throw the ball A LOT. And I think he makes a big mistake at some point. More than any other game, the Super Bowl is the spot where players want to make a huge play. And we've seen Manning do it before, when he throw a Pick 6 to Tracy Porter years ago. I just think at 10-1, it's a nice bet (and fun to root for).

Seahawks To Have Over 3.5 Players to Score Points (TD, FG, or 2-Point Conversion) +150

Whether you think Seattle is going to dominate the Broncos or even lose, they are going to have to score points. You can pretty much bank on a field goal from Steve Hauschka as he's kicked one in all but one game this season. I'm thinking Marshawn Lynch scores a TD (in his last nine games, he's failed to score twice.) So that leaves two TDs somewhere else. I like my chances and think this bet is a solid value at the +150.

Broncos to Convert a 4th Down (Converting By Penalty Doesn't Count) +130

Broncos converted eight 4th downs in the regular season and one during the playoffs. While the numbers don't really back this up, this goes along with my thinking of Denver to be down for most of the game. All it takes is one!

First Touchdown of the Game Will Be a Non-Passing TD +140

This bet relies on a few things, one mainly being Marshawn Lynch. I think Denver starts out slowly and it takes a little while to get their passing game going. I'm also expecting Seattle to be the first team to score a TD, meaning Lynch will be the guy. And if it's not Lynch, then I still have a defensive/special teams TD or a Broncos rushing TD as a possibility. I think at +140, it's pretty solid odds.

Seahawks ML +115 and Seahawks -7.5 +315

As my article has been hinting, I think it's going to be all Seahawks. Seattle 34, Denver 20!